Jul 27, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; New York Yankees second baseman Gleyber Torres (25) hits a RBI double against the Boston Red Sox during the tenth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
- The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox meet in the rubber match of a three-game series at Fenway on Sunday Night Baseball
- Carlos Rodon starts for the Pinstripes while the Bo-Sox counter with All-Star Tanner Houck
- See the Yankees vs Red Sox odds, picks, and best player props to bet on July 28
Arch-rivals clash in the finale of three-game series at Fenway Park on Sunday Night Baseball as the New York Yankees (61-45, 34-22 away) visit the Boston Red Sox (55-48, 25-26 home) at 7:00 pm ET.
Boston took the opener 9-7 on Friday but the Yankees answered back with an 11-8 win on Saturday. With Carlos Rodon on the mound for New York against Boston’s Tanner Houck, a 2024 All-Star, the Yankees vs Red Sox odds on July 28 are a pick’em.
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | -108 | -1.5 (+142) | Over 9.0 (-115) |
| Boston Red Sox | -108 | +1.5 (-172) | Under 9.0 (-105) |
Both the Yankees and Red Sox are listed at -108 on the moneyline for Sunday’s rubber match at Fenway. As the road team, the Pinstripes are listed at -1.5 on the runline but with +142 odds to win by multiple runs. The Bo-Sox are -172 to keep the score within a run.
The run total is currently sitting at 9.0 with the over only slightly favored. The teams have combined for 35 runs in the first two games of the series (16 on Friday and 19 on Saturday).
Odds as of July 28 at FanDuel. If you’re already betting at FanDuel, find the best new betting site.
Just 3-5 after the All-Star break, the Yankees are still a game behind the Orioles in the AL East but remain slight favorites in the MLB division odds. Boston is one game the Royals for the final AL Wild Card and priced at -210 not to make the playoffs.
Carlos Rodon vs Tanner Houck
| 10-7 | Record | 8-6 |
| 4.42 | ERA | 2.71 |
| 4.26 | xERA | 3.82 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.09 |
| 25.2 | K% | 22.5 |
Six-five righty Tanner Houck has become the ace of the Boston staff in just his second season as a full-time starter. Already establishing a career high in innings pitched (123.0), Houck is sixth in the majors in ERA (2.71) and seventh in FIP (2.75).
The biggest difference compared to last season, when he was saddled with a 5.01 ERA, is his ability to locate his pitches and, thus, keep them in the park. He averaged 1.19 HR/9 last year and has decreased that to just 0.44 this year, despite his average fastball velocity going down slightly (from 94.1 to 93.8 mph).
It’s hard to find an active pitcher with better numbers against the current Yankee lineup. In 63 ABs, New York hitters are slashing just .159//284/.238 off of Houck with one home run courtesy Gleyber Torres. Aaron Judge, the odds-on favorite in the AL MVP odds, is 3-for-10 against Houck but all three hits are singles.
Houck was rocked in the All-Star game, giving up three runs on four hits (including a three-run homer to Shohei Ohtani) and was then tagged for four runs on 10 hits in his first start after the break, but that came in the rarified air of Coors Field.
Rodon has considerably worse history against the Boston lineup. In 44 total at-bats, the Red Sox lineup is hitting .318 against Rodon with a .910 OPS. Rookie Ceddanne Rafaela has the only home run, which came in an 8-4 Boston win back on June 15.
In that start, Rodon allowed five runs on seven hits and three walks over 5.0 innings (2.00 WHIP), though he did strikeout seven. That game began an ugly streak of six straight losses for the Yankees in Rodon starts. But the 31-year-old lefty looked refreshed coming out of the All-Star break, throwing 7.0 innings of two-hit, one-run ball against Tampa on Monday, racking up 10 Ks in the process.
Concerningly for Yankee fans, Rodon’s home/road splits heavily skew to Yankee Stadium. He’s sporting a 5.00 ERA in 66.2 innings on the road this season.
Yankees vs Red Sox Picks & Predictions for July 28
The pitching matchup heavily favors the Red Sox on the surface. Houck is burgeoning into a true number-one starter, and he’s even limited his ERA to 2.98 at hitter-friendly Fenway Park this season. In light of his past success against the Yankee hitters and Rodon’s abysmal stats against the Boston lineup, I’m taking the Red Sox first-half moneyline.
I’m also going to take the under on Rodon’s strikeout prop of 7.5, a number he’s exceeded just five times in 21 starts this year.
NYY vs BOS picks:
- Red Sox first-half moneyline (-110 at DraftKings)
- Rodon under 7.5 Ks (-158 at FanDuel)
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.