Professor Allan Lichtman, a forecaster dubbed as the ‘Nostradamus’ of US presidential elections, shared his thoughts on how Ohio Senator JD Vance might influence the outcome of the 2024 battle between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
The American University professor Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every presidential election since 40th President Ronald Reagan’s victory in 1984.
US VP choice ‘incredibly important’ but Vance is a ‘disastrous pick’: Lichtman
Lichtman claims on his YouTube channel that Vance would be a “horror show” if Trump were incapacitated and he had to take over as president.
While stressing that vice presidential selection doesn’t always swing the election, he called VP choice “incredibly important”. “That’s why JD Vance was such a disastrous pick; he would be a horror show as president.”
The purpose of choosing a running mate, according to him, is to have a successor in case the president steps down or dies, which has happened nine times in US history.
Speaking to Newsweek, he said Vance poses a challenge because his “views are even more extreme” than those of Trump.
“For example, on aid to Ukraine or wanting a national prohibition on abortion with no exception for rape, incest, or health of the mother. And Vance has become a lightning rod for criticism,” he stated.
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Here’s what Lichtman’s model has to say on Kamala Harris
The Lichtman’s model, which takes into account thirteen points, or “keys”, currently projects that Harris is on the course of victory. Harris, who is scheduled to reveal her vice presidential candidate on Monday, has experienced an increase in her poll numbers.
The fresh impetus given to Harris‘ campaign might help her in a number of ways, such as reducing the number of voters who support third-party candidate Robert Kennedy Jr, Lichtman told C-SPAN.
He added that Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race and Harris’ bid for the White House have a “mixed” impact. “But it doesn’t fundamentally change my assessment that a lot would have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose.”
Lichtman further announced that he will release his formal election forecast after Democratic convention.
“I plan to make my official prediction in August after the Democratic convention. See my assessment below on the 13 Keys Tracker on where The Keys stand NOW,” he wrote on X.