Major League Baseball’s trade deadline looms at 6 p.m. ET on Tuesday, and the needs of the Red Sox are turning critical.
They’ve acquired a starter (James Paxton) and backup catcher (Danny Jansen), but their rotation is still going on fumes and their bullpen has been imploding for weeks. After Sunday night’s loss to the Yankees, they’re just 2-7 since the All-Star break, falling a game behind the Royals for the final wild card spot.
Let’s break down what they’ve done and what work remains.
1. Two moves so far
Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has moved to fill two needs already. After the pitching-rich Dodgers somewhat surprisingly designated Paxton for assignment last week, the Red Sox pounced, acquiring him for minor league infielder Moises Bolivar.
Paxton is 8-2 with a 4.43 ERA, numbers pretty similar to what he posted in Boston last year. Under the hood, however, his velocity and strikeouts are down, and his walks are up. He appealed to the Red Sox anyway because he has been reliable, with 18 starts under his belt. Just taking a regular turn will ease the strain atop the rotation.
The other move was a mild surprise. After a hot start, backup catcher Reese McGuire had gone ice cold. Needing right-handed punch to balance their overly left-handed roster, the Red Sox snagged Jansen, an impending free agent with some power, from the Jays. He represents an upgrade, but perhaps only a marginal one.
2. What’s next?
In a word, pitching. All-Star Tanner Houck is in a rut after Sunday’s loss, having walked more batters than he has struck out in three of his last four starts. He has already set a career-high for innings pitched and will need to be managed going forward. There’s little depth beyond the current five-man rotation.
That means finding another starter, but it will probably be someone more like Paxton than, say, a top-of-the-market arm such as San Francisco’s Blake Snell or Detroit ace Tarik Skubal. Rangers right-hander Michael Lorenzen, whose 3.81 ERA belies some lousy peripherals, might’ve been one target, but he was traded to the Royals on Monday.
While the rotation could use another arm, the bullpen remains a much more immediate concern. Red Sox relievers own a 6.39 ERA this month and have blown leads in the seventh inning or later five times since the All-Star break.
The club awaits the return of injured setup men Chris Martin and Justin Slaten, but neither has begun a rehab assignment and there’s still no timetable on their availability. If the last week is any indication, waiting until mid-August for reinforcements could be too late.
A last need, though less pressing, is a right-handed bat, preferably one that can play some first base. While the Red Sox remain susceptible to left-handed starters, as New York’s Carlos Rodón illustrated again on Sunday, offense isn’t nearly as pressing an issue as pitching.
3. What’s the cost?
Here’s where things get tricky. The reliever market hasn’t been for the faint of heart.
The Padres sent the Rays three prospects for right-hander Jason Adam, including their No. 1 pitching prospect, Dylan Lesko. The Phillies shipped two well-regarded pitchers to the Angels for right-hander Carlos Estevez. The Diamondbacks used their Nos. 14 and 30 prospects to acquire A.J. Puk from the Marlins.
It’s unclear how far Breslow will be willing to go for a rental reliever, but it’s hard to fault him if he doesn’t want to pay the current exorbitant prices.
4. What’s everyone else doing?
Remember Alex Cora’s observation that teams that do nothing at the deadline fall behind because everyone else is improving? That’s already looking like the case in the American League playoff race.
The Orioles have already added starter Zach Eflin to their rotation and reportedly remain engaged with the Tigers on Skubal. The Yankees grabbed All-Star center fielder Jazz Chisholm from the Marlins. The Mariners landed Rays postseason hero Randy Arozarena. The Royals snagged Lorenzen.
The Blue Jays and Rays may yet impact the pennant race by selling. Tampa has been the most aggressive seller in the league and could still move All-Stars Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe, while the Jays could dangle lefty Yusei Kikuchi, first baseman Justin Turner, and center fielder Kevin Kiermaier.
With the Rangers and Astros also expected to buy, the Red Sox can’t just wait for the return of injured players if they want to keep pace.