The ‘Nostradamus’ of US presidential elections has broken his silence after his prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris would beat ex-President Donald Trump was wrong.
Historian Allan Lichtman, 77, who correctly forecast all but one US election since 1984, has taken a new loss to his nearly perfect record.
Lichtman in early September picked Harris to win the election, based on his 13 true-false keys to the White House that are not dependent on polls and pundits. The American University professor determined that Harris and the Democratic Party only had three false keys and that she therefore would become the next president.
The 13 keys Lichtman uses for every election are: party mandate, no primary contest, incumbent seeking re-election, no third party, strong short-term economy, strong long-term economy, major policy change, no social unrest, no scandal, no foreign or military failure, major foreign or military success, charismatic incumbent and uncharismatic challenger.
He stood by his prediction in the following weeks, insisting that the keys could not be affected by any ‘October surprise’ or other factors.
As Harris’ path to victory narrowed early Wednesday, Lichtman, who was doing a YouTube live streamed analysis, seemed to become speechless.
‘I don’t get it,’ he said.
‘I’m not doing any interviews, I’m done.’
The historian, who was right that Trump would win in 2016 and lose in 2020, made his political leanings clear by making a pessimistic forecast about the former president.
‘You know what happens if Trump wins? He won’t serve a full term, he’ll turn it over to JD Vance,’ Lichtman said, referring to the president-elect’s vice presidential running mate.
He thanked his followers for ‘the kind emails’ and for saying that he should continue broadcasting his views.
‘I’m going to sleep all day tomorrow,’ Lichtman concluded, then signed off.
In the early hours of Wednesday, several news outlets called the election for Trump. It was Lichtman’s only miscalculation besides the 2000 election, when then-Republican nominee George W Bush beat his pick, Democrat Al Gore.
Late morning on Wednesday, Lichtman took to X (formerly Twitter) to again thank his subscribers and listeners and say ‘we will go on and are assessing last night’s results’. He announced he would hold a discussion on Friday at 2am GMT.
Lichtman then took a shot at his competitor of sorts, polling guru Nate Silver, who less than two weeks to the election said his gut feeling was that Trump would win.
‘Unlike Nate Silver, who will try to squirm out of why he didn’t see the election coming, I admit that I was wrong,’ wrote Lichtman.
A few hours later, Lichtman alleged more holes in Silver’s correct prediction.
‘Silver’s last call had Harris very marginally ahead. He certainly was not predicting a Trump Electoral College landslide,’ the historian wrote.
‘And he said don’t trust my gut. So once again he can’t be wrong no matter what the outcome.’
Silver, who sparred with Lichtman in the weeks leading up to the election, had not responded to the historian on X as of Wednesday evening.
Trump’s victory, arguably the greatest comeback in American political history, was predicted not only by Silver but by an economist regarded as the most accurate in the world and by betting markets.
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