NHL: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins Predictions, Picks and Preview

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Mark Keast

Mark Keast has recently covered the sports betting industry in Canada for The Parleh, and is a long-time sportswriter and editor, most notably with the Toronto Sun.

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Last Updated: 2024 Mar 14

Leafs Look for Revenge

The Maple Leafs (36-18-8-80, 3^rd in the Atlantic Division) are in Boston for a key game against the Bruins (36-13-15-87 points, 2nd in the Atlantic Division), the fourth of four meetings between the clubs this season. The Maple Leafs have posted a 0-1-2 record against the Bruins this season while losing six-consecutive games against Boston. 

The Maple Leafs are scheduled to begin a three-game road trip tonight. Toronto is skating in their second game of a back-to-back. They have posted a 5-3-0 record in the second game of a back-to-back this season. 

NHL Schedule: Game Details

Leafs vs. Bruins Insights

This is the most important game of the season for the Maple Leafs, coming off that disappointing 4-1 loss to the Bruins on home ice Monday. 

The Bruins have owned the Leafs in recent seasons, and Monday schooled them on how to win late-season, tight-checking, playoff-style games. They got great goaltending from Jeremy Swayman, who had 32 saves, and a .970 save percentage. Their penalty killing unit held the powerful Leafs’ power play off the score sheet in four opportunities. It was solid road win for the Bruins.

The teams return to Boston tonight, where the Bruins are a mighty 19-7-6 at home. The Leafs are 18-6-6 on the road. 

🏒 Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Bruins at DraftKings 🏒

A big question mark for the Leafs is on the injury front – D Jake McCabe missed last night’s game against the Buffalo Sabres – a 2-1 Leafs’ win in overtime – with an illness that has been spreading around the team’s locker room. He is listed on injury reports today as day-to-day. D Mark Giordano is out with a concussion.

The Sportsnet TV broadcast made an interesting observation about that last night – despite scoring the winning goal in overtime, Auston Matthews – the NHL’s leading goal scorer, with 54, on pace for 72 – looked sluggish. Is Matthews ill as well?

The good news for the Leafs was the play last night of William Nylander. He was flying, on a second line with Matt Domi and Todd Bertuzzi, and had his 34^th goal of the season.

Swayman is confirmed as starting goalie for the Bruins. Joseph Woll is listed as probable in net for the Leafs, after Ilya Samsonov backstopped the team to the win last night. Samsonov is 11-3 since being recalled from the minors in early January. Woll was in the net for the loss to the Bruins earlier in the week and looked a little leaky. So, tonight is a statement game for him.

🏒 Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Bruins at FanDuel 🏒

The Leafs are 11-4 in the last past 15 games, a comfortable eight points up on Detroit for third place in the Atlantic Division. The top three teams in each of the two Eastern Conference divisions get into the playoffs, as well as two wildcard teams.  Their latest streak has built them a nice buffer there.

The challenge is catching Boston. They’re seven points back. And these are the games against tough, playoff-experienced divisional rivals where they can’t afford to show up as meekly as they did Monday night. If they’re going to win the Stanley Cup (14.00 odds according to BetMGM) the road is likely going to go through Boston and then the first-place Florida Panthers.

The Leafs made a good move today – beefing up their back end, trading for D Joel Edmundson from the Washington Capitals for a third-round pick in 2024 (via the New York Islanders) and a fifth-round pick (via the Chicago Blackhawks) in 2025.

So, they added physicality and depth to their defence, to coincide with the move in acquiring Ilya Lyubushkin in a trade last week. Plus Edmundson will help with their penalty killing – currently 21^st in the NHL (78%). The NHL’s trade deadline is tomorrow at 3 p.m. EST. The 6-foot-five, 221-pound Edmundson won a Cup with the St. Louis Blues in 2019.

D Hampus Lindholm (lower body) won’t be available for the Bruins, according to the Boston Globe.

Leafs vs. Bruins Player Props

If you’re into online betting, according to BetMGM, most bet player props today are Matthews to Score a Goal (1.91), Matthews First Goal Scorer (7.00) and Nylander Under 3.5 Shots (1.67).

At PointsBet Canada, most bet player props for the game are David Pastrnak Over 4.5 Shots on Goal (1.83) and Matthews Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (1.53). 

And at DraftKings, most bet player props today are David Pastrnak Anytime Goalscorer (1.87), Matthews Anytime Goalscorer (1.91), Brad Marchand Anytime Goalscorer (2.95), Pastrnak First Goalscorer (6.50), Matthews First Goalscorer (7.00), Marchand First Goalscorer (10.50), Matthews Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (1.60), William Nylander Under 3.5 Shots on Goal (1.69), Mitch Marner Over 0.5 Assists (1.74).

Our Leafs vs. Bruins Pick 

Wow, NHL betting is tight at BetMGM – Moneyline bets are split 50-50, with 68 per cent of spread bets on the Leafs. Bettors like the Under to the tune of 63 per cent. 

We’ve got our eyes on Bertuzzi, as the playoffs get closer. He has come on of late for the Leafs, after not playing well. Last year with the Bruins in the playoffs he had five goals and five assists in ten games. That’s the Bertuzzi we are betting on, as the season winds down and the games get grittier. We can see him moving up to the top line with Matthews and Mitch Marner. That would free up space for a trade by tomorrow’s deadline, bringing in another gritty, ornery warrior to get their roster more playoff-ready. 

We’re looking at Bertuzzi as a difference-maker today, and we’re taking the Leafs on the Moneyline at BetMGM. Time to turn around the old criticisms of the players and a wealthy organization hyper focused on making money, when it comes to playoff-style hockey, that they’re too soft, especially as those critiques relate to the Bruins, their biggest nemesis. 

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Mark Keast has recently covered the sports betting industry in Canada for The Parleh, and is a long-time sportswriter and editor, most notably with the Toronto Sun.

Read Full Bio

Mark Keast

Last Updated:
 
2024 Mar 14