Boston College HC BIll O’Brien has turned around the program in short order, grinding out games with a punishing 81% run rate on standard downs (4th in FBS). While BC doesn’t ask 5’9/196 dynamo QB Tommy Castellanos to throw much, he has been devastating on a per-play basis ranking 4th in EPA/dropback, 2nd in adjusted net yards per attempt and 2nd in QBR. Their run defense is stout, averaging a 35% stuff rate while holding opponents to a 47% completion rate, which ranks 11-best in FBS.
Michigan State is bringing in a new coaching staff as well, as longtime Oregon State alum and coach Jonathan Smith takes over, bringing QB Aidan Chiles and TE Jack Velling with him. So far MSU is lagging offensively as second-year QB Chiles learns on the job as a first-year starter with the Spartans averaging a 35% success rate (116th) and ranking 122nd in points per scoring opportunity to go with an unacceptable six turnovers thus far (127th). The defense has kept the team competitive by pitching a unit that allows a 35% success rate and is 23rd in marginal explosiveness.
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Game Details and How to watch 2024 Michigan State @ Boston College Saturday
§ Date: Saturday, September 21, 2024
§ Time: 8:00 PM EST
§ Location: Alumni Stadium
§ City: Chestnut Hill, MA
§ TV/Streaming: ACC Network
Want to check out the other games on the College Football schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!
Latest Game odds for Michigan State @ Boston College
The latest odds as of Thursday:
o Money Line: Boston College -250, Michigan State +200
o Spread: Boston College -6.5 (-115)
o Total: 45.5 points
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
The opening line has stuck around -6.5 at most domestics, but we’re seeing the key number -7 getting hung in a few places so stay vigilant. You can find the game total between 44.5 and 45.5 points which has held steady since the open.
Be sure to check out BetMGM for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the College Football schedule!
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
“Since 2022, games in which Boston College is favored have gone Under 71.4% of the time. The Eagles are favored, the game total is 45.5 points, and they are running at the fifth slowest pace in the country. Michigan State prefers to play that style of ball as well but reverted to shooting it out with high-flying Maryland out of necessity. I think we get a classic methodical, ground-and-pound Boston College throwback game that slides UNDER 45.5 Points.”
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From the Trading Desk at BetMGM courtesy of John Ewing: Conference Odds
2024 ACC Champion
Favorite: Miami Hurricanes +120
Boston College Eagles (+2500)
2024 Big Ten Champion
Favorite: Ohio State Buckeyes +105
Michigan State Spartans +20000
Quarterback matchup for Michigan State @ Boston College
o Boston College: UCF transfer Thomas Castellanos had some growing pains during his first season as a starter in Chestnut Hill completing 57% of his passes for 2,249 yards, a 15-to-14 ratio and a middling 58th% PFF passing grade. With the arrival of new HC O’Brien and his run-heavy ways, Castellanos is averaging just 18 passes per game this year. However, when he has dropped back to pass, the results have been spectacular with BC ranking Top 10 in numerous categories including Total QBR, passing explosiveness and completions of 20+ yards. For perspective on just how incredible Castellanos has been through three games, he is currently ranked 2nd in FBS in PFF passing grade and presents a significant problem for the Spartans’ defense.
o Michigan State: A much-ballyhooed four-star signal caller from the 2023 prep cycle, Chiles showed flashes of real potential last season in relief of Oregon State-now-FSU QB DJ Uiagalelei last year completing 69% of his passes for 8.8 YPA and a 4-to-0 ratio. It’s been a mixed bag in the early going this year, with Chiles stumbling out of the blocks against FAU completing 10-of-24 passes for 114 yards and a ghastly 0-to-2 ratio. He rebounded nicely against Maryland though, throwing for 363 yards, 9.3 YPA and three touchdowns, but he also threw three costly interceptions. Fortunately, MSU hung onto beat the Terps and remains undefeated heading into their final non-conference matchup with BC.
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Spartans and Eagles: Player news & recent stats
· One of the most undisciplined teams in the nation, Michigan State is averaging a seemingly impossible 120 penalty yards per game (133rd) through their first three games. Somehow they managed to rack up 11 penalties and 102 yards in their 40-0 Week 3 evisceration of Prairie View A&M, in a game they completely dominated. You have to wonder, when will the cascade of miscues cost them a game?
· The Spartans are trying to find a rhythm in the run game, as they’re currently 114th in rushing success rate (34%) and 109th with a 25% stuff rate. While RB Nathan Carter is the nominal starter, UMass transfer Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams is averaging 3.9 YAC, 6.2 yards per carry and has outsnapped Carter in each of the last two games.
· BC’s defense has been excellent on a per-down basis, ranking 8th in EPA/play, 12th in success rate allowed and 3rd in plays of 0 or less yards. Their Achilles heel is the big pass play, with BC ranking 93rd in passing explosiveness and 102nd in completions of 20+ yards.
· BC was 2-4 against the spread when averaging less than 5.0 yards per carry last season, 12th-worst among Power Five programs. Arizona had the highest winning percentage when averaging less than 5.0 YPC at 90%.
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