Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and the Celtics have a chance to stamp their names in Boston sports lore on Monday night.
On the brink of championship glory, the Celtics are 6.5-point favorites in Game 5 at home against the Mavericks at TD Garden Arena.
Sportsbooks are expecting a party in downtown Boston, but expect Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to be playing with an insatiable sense of urgency to keep the Mavericks’ season alive.
The Celtics have been dominant for multiple years over the regular season, but there are some narrative-related concerns about Boston’s ability to close at home.
Boston lost Game 7 at home against the Miami Heat as 7.5-point favorites last season in the Eastern Conference Finals.
They were also closed out by the Golden State Warriors in Game 6 of the 2022 NBA Finals as four-point favorites.
This team looks to continue proving that it is different in Monday night’s close-out game against the Mavericks.
Boston is 79-21 combined this season, including the playoffs, with a 45-6 record at home.
Mavericks vs. Celtics prediction for Game 5
(8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
The Dallas Mavericks waited too long to shorten their rotation. As recently as Game 3, 11 players were getting significant minutes while the game was close.
Kidd dropped that number to nine during the brief time the game hung in the balance of Game 4.
You’ll see a snapshot of the Mavericks’ box score with minutes played in Game 4: it featured 15 players getting multiple minutes in an NBA Finals game, but digging deep there is more to the story.
Markieff Morris, Olivier-Maxence Propser, Dwight Powell and A.J. Lawson will likely never play again in this series, as they have a combined zero minutes played in the Finals prior to Game 4.
Jaden Hardy also seems to be trending towards being a heat-check-or-bust player for Dallas.
He played two minutes in Game 3 and did not enter until late in the third quarter of a 30-point blowout in Game 4.
Tim Hardaway Jr. also did not get game action until the fourth quarter, giving us nine players that Kidd is comfortable playing:
Doncic, Irving, P.J. Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., Josh Green, Dante Exum, Maxi Kleber, Dereck Lively II and maybe Daniel Gafford.
Gafford started in Game 4 but received three minutes before immediately being pulled for Lively, who has been Dallas’ best big man.
Gafford has seen his minutes reduced in every game since Game 2, and he is in the bottom three in plus/minus in each of his last three games.
Put bluntly, Gafford is a guy who should be in there for the occasional rebound and if you need to give Kleber or Lively a few minutes rest.
Fade Gafford’s playing time by betting his unders on Monday night.
Under 6.5 points scored (-136, BetRivers) is among the best bets Monday night, but don’t be afraid to bet his under on blocks (+132, BetRivers), either.
Betting on the NBA?
And here’s a fun long shot, highly correlated parlay, that is bettable on DraftKings only.
Parlay $10 pays $1,000: Gafford under 6.5 points + under 3.5 rebounds + under .5 assist + under .5 steals + under .5 blocks + Lively over 12+ rebounds + Kleber over 2.5 points (100/1, DraftKings)