There might not be a first-round NBA playoff series more lopsided than Heat-Celtics.
With Jimmy Butler likely to miss the first round, it feels as if Miami is severely outgunned against Boston.
Heck, basically every team is at a big disadvantage vs. this year’s Celtics, and it’s even harder to knock them off without your best player.
The Celtics are once again huge favorites Wednesday night in Game 3 after picking up a dominant win on Sunday to go up 1-0 in the best-of-seven first-round series.
Let’s dive into the odds for Game 2 and find a betting edge.
Heat vs. Celtics odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heat | +14.5 (-110) | +775 | o203.5 (-110) |
| Celtics | -14.5 (-110) | -1400 | u203.5 (-110) |
Heat vs. Celtics prediction
7 p.m. ET, TNT
Boston being favored by 14.5 points seems like too much at first glance, but I think it’s fair given how Game 1 played out and Butler’s injury.
The 114-94 final score doesn’t truly indicate how badly the Celtics blew out the Heat.
Boston led by 32 points entering the fourth quarter, and that is a frightening level of separation for Miami.
The Celtics’ talent advantage paired with their offensive attack is a major problem for the Heat.
Four of Boston’s five starters shot at least 37.5% from beyond the arc in the regular season, and after leading the NBA with 42.5 3-point attempts per game, the Celtics went 22-of-49 from deep in Game 1 to set the tone for the series.
And even though it’s unlikely Boston hits that many 3-pointers again, Jayson Tatum only went 1-for-8 from deep in Game 1, so there’s still some meat on the bone.
The Celtics’ 3-point shooting, offensive skill, defensive versatility and overall cohesion helped them have a +11.34 point differential per game this season.
That mark was fifth-best in NBA history, and it shows how their dominance in Game 1 was no fluke.
This is who Boston is. It can hurt its opponents in so many ways, and the offseason additions of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday are the extra pieces the Celtics need to get back to the NBA Finals.
Boston should have revenge on its mind as well. Everyone remembers who beat the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals last year, and they know better than anyone that they can’t overlook the Heat and let them hang around.
Betting on the NBA?
Heat vs. Celtics pick
Expect another complete effort from Boston to make sure Miami leaves TD Garden with another decisive defeat.
Additionally, 82% of the public bets are on the Heat to cover. Fading the public is often the right choice (like it was for me on Tuesday), and it makes sense in this Game 2 given the talent gap between the teams.
The Celtics are a fantastic team, and without Butler, I don’t see how Miami keeps it close tonight. Anticipate another blowout and take Boston to cover.