Mar 1, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) reacts after his three point basket against Dallas Mavericks forward P.J. Washington (25) in the second half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
- The Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics public-betting splits for Game 1 show a ton of action on the over
- The public is also siding with the visiting Mavericks to cover as sizable underdogs
- See the full Game 1 Mavericks vs Celtics public-betting splits for June 6
The 2024 NBA Finals starts tonight (Thursday, June 6) with Game 1 at TD Garden in Boston. The Dallas Mavericks went 12-5 en route to winning the West as the #5 seed, while the Boston Celtics went 12-2 while romping to the Eastern Conference title.
The Mavericks were considerably better against the spread in the playoffs, however, and the public is strongly backing Dallas to cover in the NBA public betting splits for Game 1.
Mavericks vs Celtics Betting Percentages
| Team | Spread | ATS Handle% | ATS Bet% | Total Points | O/U Handle% | O/U Bet% | Moneyline | ML Handle% | ML Bet% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks | +6.5 | 74% | 70% | 215.5 | 98% | 94% | +190 | 38% | 13% |
| Boston Celtics | -6.5 | 26% | 30% | 215.5 | 2% | 6% | -230 | 62% | 87% |
The Celtics are listed as 6.5-point ATS favorites and -230 moneyline favorites for Game 1 and , which tips off at 8:40 pm ET. The game total has increased a full point from 214.5 to 215.5 since the odds opened nearly a week ago.
Public Hammering Mavericks ATS in Game 1
The public is all over Luka Doncic and the Mavericks as 6.5-point underdogs in Game 1 on Thursday night. As of 1:30 pm ET, the Mavs are getting 74% of money bet against the spread on 70% of the wagers, which leaves just 26% of handle and 30% of tickets for the hometown Celtics.
It’s not terribly surprising the public is backing the Mavs as big underdogs. While the Celtics managed to sweep the Indiana Pacers in the East finals, it was an unconvincing sweep. The Pacers led in the fourth quarter in three of four games, despite missing All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton in two of those. Going back to their second-round series with Cleveland, the C’s have covered just one of their last six games (Game 2 against the Pacers).
The Mavericks, on the other hand, are 11-6 ATS in the postseason to date, including four ATS wins in their last five games. They are 6-3 ATS on the road in the playoffs.
Mavericks vs Celtics Game Total Action Is All on the Over
The public’s favorite wager in Game 1 is over 215.5, despite the game total already rising a full point from where it opened. Roughly 6.5 hours from tipoff, a preposterous 98% of game-total handle (and 94% of bets) were on over 215.5, meaning just 2% of handle and 6% of tickets were on the under.
Both teams have skewed to the over in the playoffs, but not by a huge margin. The Mavs are 9-8 O/U while the Celtics are 8-6. That said, both teams are 5-1 to the over in their past six, and clearly the public thinks that trends is going to continue in Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals.
Celtics’ Moneyline Getting a Lot of Love
The area where the public is the most-tepid is on the moneyline, but there is still a strong lean. The Celtics are currently getting 62% of moneyline handle as -230 home favorites with the Mavs getting the remaining 38% as +190 road underdogs. Notably, though, Dallas is attracting 38% of handle on just 13% of the bets, which means the bigger wagers are clearly on the Mavs.
Traditional wisdom says that means the “sharp” money is on Dallas (because sharps tend to make bigger wagers) but take that with a grain of salt. Plenty of fish try to make a big splash these days.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.