The New England Patriots aren’t expected to be good in 2024. But can they at least be better than last season?
That’s one way to look at a rebuilding Patriots team with a first-year head coach and 10 (!) rookies on its 53-man roster. After all, the goal of a rebuild is to make steady improvements — and in case you forgot, the bar is set pretty low.
New England needs just five wins this season to top the 4-13 record that ultimately cost Bill Belichick his job in 2023. If the offense averages just 14 points per game, that will represent an improvement from the club’s NFL-worst 13.9 points per game last season.
So, what are the odds the 2024 Patriots are better than the 2023 Patriots? To answer that question, we picked six high-level stat categories and asked Patriots Insiders Tom E. Curran and Phil Perry to predict whether head coach Jerod Mayo’s club will go “over” or “under” the team’s 2023 total.
Their responses might make you feel slightly better about the upcoming season.
Points per game (2023 result: 13.9; T-32nd in NFL)
Tom E. Curran: OVER (17.3)
Always remember and don’t ever forget how unwatchable and brutally inefficient the 2023 Patriots were. It took years to get to that point and a boatload of hare-brained decisions on the coaching staff and in player personnel (Jakobi Meyers). That’s not even mentioning the ruination of a first-round quarterback.
The Patriots will get better quarterback play. They will use DeMario Douglas as the slot receiver/chain mover they haven’t had since Julian Edelman retired. They will have a nice running back complement with Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson. They will actually have a change-up back with JaMycal Hasty.
K.J. Osborn and Ja’Lynn Polk will be upgrades to a wide receiver group that still needs work. Yes, the offensive line will be porous. And that’s why we’ll keep the points-per-game prediction very modest. But if you can’t expect this team to score 17 points per game in 2024, then my God, what are we doing?
Finally, offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt — having free rein to run his offense his way with a serviceable journeyman and a promising rookie — will be in a far better spot than Bill O’Brien was with a broken quarterback with no safety net beneath him.
Phil Perry: OVER
As far as this offense has to go when it comes to adding improved personnel to its offensive line and receiver corps, this year’s team should limit turnovers in a way that last year’s couldn’t.
Jacoby Brissett has a miniscule 1.4 percent interception rate, tying him for first with Aaron Rodgers for the smallest figure of any quarterback in league history with at least 1,500 attempts.
Sacks allowed (2023 result: 48; 9th in NFL)
Tom E. Curran: OVER (52)
Three sacks per game gets you to 51.
Figure there will be a four-sack game in there someplace to get you to 52. And one thing Jacoby Brissett can do is take sacks.
One of the main reasons the Patriots surprisingly moved on from him back in 2017 was that he could be a little bit of a slow processor. That has improved over the past seven seasons, but he still isn’t terribly quick with his first step and will be under strict orders to take care of football and not put it in harm’s way.
The Patriots want their possessions to end with kicks. Third-and-11 on their own 31, if nobody’s open, take the sack.
It won’t all be on Brissett, of course. The annual misappropriation of funds at the tackle position will be the main reason for Brissett’s weekly beatings.
Phil Perry: OVER
This could get ugly. And it could start to roll in the wrong direction Week 1.
Bengals pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson aligns on the offensive left, which is where the Patriots have their largest question mark to start the season. Will Vederian Lowe be healthy enough to play? Will longtime right tackle Chukwuma Okorafor be comfortable enough to hold his own on the left side?
Too many issues here to start the year to feel good about New England’s chances of allowing fewer than 48 sacks.
Penalties committed (2023 results: 89; T-8th fewest in NFL)
Tom E. Curran: OVER (101)
We saw some false start festivals during training camp and the preseason. Combine that with the league’s rules emphasis on tackle alignment which, as we saw in Thursday’s Chiefs-Ravens opener, is going to be enforced.
So the Patriots’ somewhat overmatched tackles will be constantly drifting back to try and gain an advantage until they finally figure out it’s not allowed!!
Also, tack on the stress the Patriots defense is going to feel from the gauntlet of very good offenses all season long, and you’re gonna see some grabbiness.
Hence. Over.
Phil Perry: OVER
With so much change on the coaching staff, and with offensive linemen working to adapt to a new offensive system — and new techniques brought to the table by line coach Scott Peters — this could get bumpy.
Officials are also going to be extremely whistle-happy when it comes to player alignments. Combine those issues with some regression to the mean after a relatively clean season in 2023, and this number should rise.
Turnovers (2023 results: 29; 6th-most in NFL)
Tom E. Curran: UNDER (23)
As mentioned above, Brissett is literally one of the most careful passers in NFL history.
So, again, you can quibble with the overall skill level of the Patriots’ starting quarterback, but given the fact they were preposterously bad with the picks last year, getting a guy who’s one of the best ever at taking care of the ball is a smart move.
If Drake Maye hits the field, the picks go up. So too will the fumbles because his under-center ball handling needs work. But it won’t be like last year. Praise be.
Phil Perry: UNDER
Jacoby Brissett in. Mac Jones out. That should lead to an improvement in this particular category. And even if Drake Maye takes the reins in the near future, it’s been his modus operandi to take care of the football.
He was relatively efficient throughout training camp in that regard, especially after a bumpy first week. And in college, Maye had a turnover-worthy play rate of 1.8, which was tied for seventh-best among FBS passers with at least 200 dropbacks.
Points allowed per game (2023 results: 21.5; 15th in NFL)
Tom E. Curran: UNDER (20.1)
I wanted to go over just because of the lineup of quarterbacks the Patriots are facing: Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, Matthew Stafford, Brock Purdy, Geno Smith, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray and Anthony Richardson — then Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen twice each.
But the dip in turnovers — and the pick-sixes and strip sacks — should offset it just a little. Teams feasted off those in 2023.
So under. By a touch.
Phil Perry: UNDER
I’ve said all offseason that I have faith that this defense can land among the elites of the NFL. Then we found out Christian Barmore would be unavailable. Then Matthew Judon was traded.
I still believe this team will be closer to a top-10 unit in terms of points allowed than a middle-of-the-pack one. DeMarcus Covington is going to lead an aggressive charge with versatile playmakers, and corner Christian Gonzalez could establish himself as a top-tier lockdown defender in Year 2.
Wins (2023 results: 4; T-31st in NFL)
Tom E. Curran: OVER (5)
The main deficiencies on this team are offensive tackle, offensive speed/playmaking talent, coaching inexperience and depth everywhere.
Those are tough deficiencies to mask. This is Year 1 of Rebuild 2.0. The schedule is a killer. They’re almost a shoo-in for a top-seven pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Now, would I be stunned if the Patriots became a team that had some success and started playing better than the sum of its parts? I would not. After the dysfunction of the past two seasons, there’s going to be a weight lifted and emotion can be tremendous fuel.
But they’re just not talented enough or experienced enough to overrun the “programs” that are already in place with some of their opponents.
Phil Perry: OVER (5)
I had the Patriots as a six-win team going into training camp. I feel as I thought I would when it comes to the offense… aside from the play of the offensive line.
It surprised me how frequently pass-rushers were able to get into the backfield during early-camp practice periods. It got worse when the Eagles came to town for a joint session. And the preseason games did little to prove that unit was prepared to hold up in protection consistently.
Thus my final-record prediction for the team has dropped by a game as we approach the regular season: 5-12.