Jul 20, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith (16) celebrates after hitting a walk-off single to defeat the Boston Red Sox in the 11th inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
- The injury-riddled Los Angeles Dodgers go for a sweep of the Boston Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball on July 21
- Kutter Crawford starts for Boston opposite LA’s James Paxton
- See the Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks, and predictions for Sunday Night Baseball
Despite a litany of significant injuries, the AL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers (58-41) keep right on rolling, starting their post-All-Star break schedule with a pair of wins over the Boston Red Sox. Tonight, LA sends James Paxton to the mound as they go for a three-game sweep against Kutter Crawford and the Bo-Sox at Chavez Ravine on Sunday Night Baseball (4:10 pm PT/7:10 pm ET).
Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | -102 | -1.5 (+160) | Over 9.0 (-108) |
| LA Dodgers | -118 | +1.5 (-192) | Under 9.0 (-112) |
Los Angeles enters Sunday as slight -118 favorites in the MLB odds with Boston at -102 in the Red Sox vs Dodgers odds. Boston is also priced at +160 to win by multiple runs while the Dodgers are -192 to keep the score within a run. The over/under is sitting at nine even with the under slightly favored at -112.
Odds as of July 21 at DraftKings. Get a DraftKings Sportsbook promo for Sunday Night Baseball on July 21.
The Dodgers are getting 58% of moneyline handle in Sunday’s MLB public betting splits while the public is hammering the over (83%).
The first game of the series was a low-scoring 4-1 win for the Dodgers, with all of LA’s runs coming on an eighth-inning Freddie Freeman grand slam after a fifth-inning home from All-Star Game MVP Jaren Duran gave Boston the lead.
Saturday’s game was a very different affair. The teams went to extras tied 4-4 after three different lead changes. Boston looked to have it in the bag after scoring two in the top of the 10th but a pair of hits in the bottom half allowed LA to force another frame where a Will Smith single would plate the winning run in a 7-6 thriller.
Kutter Crawford vs James Paxton
| 6-7 | Record | 7-2 |
| 3.00 | ERA | 4.38 |
| 3.69 | xERA | 4.82 |
| 1.04 | WHIP | 1.45 |
| 24.3% | K% | 15.6% |
The matchup on the certainly favors the Red Sox early on. Crawford has been the team’s second-best starter this year, and has an almost identical WHIP to All-Star Tanner Houck (1.03 vs 1.04). Crawford entered the All-Star break on absolute fire. In his final three starts, he allowed just one run (earned or unearned) over 20.0 innings with 15 Ks, 13 hits, and one walk. Boston won all three games by a combined score of 16-3. The level of opposition was above average, overall (Royals, Yankees, Marlins).
In a limited sample size (23 total ABs), Crawford has decent numbers against the Dodger lineup, which has a .263 average but only a ..596 OPS against the 28-year-old righty. No one on LA has taken Crawford deep and Cavan Biggio has the only extra-base hit (a double).
While James Paxton has a fantastic 7-2 win/loss record, that’s due to phenomenal run support. He’s lucky to have an ERA of just 4.38. All of his peripherals suggest it should be higher, including an ugly 5.36 xFIP and 1.45 WHIP.
Paxton has his worst game of the season on July 30, allowing nine runs on 12 hits and two walks over just 4.0 innings against the Giants. He wasn’t much better in his final two starts before the All-Star break, giving up five runs on nine hits and six walks over 8.2 innings combined with just four strikeouts.
Paxton has only ever faced three current Boston hitters. Rob Refsnyder and Dominic Smith are both 0-for-3 while Rafael Devers is a red-hot 7-for-17 with two doubles.
Red Sox vs Dodgers Prediction for Sunday Night Baseball
I have no interest in backing Paxton until he goes on an extended run of decent performances. Crawford gives Boston a sizable advantage over the first half of the game, yet the first 5 innings moneyline is only modestly skewed to the Red Sox compared to the full-game line.
Look for Devers and Durant to stake Boston to an early lead by Crawford does a decent job of shutting down the Dodgers, who only scored one run in the first 5 innings on Friday and Saturday combined.
BOS vs LAD picks:
- Boston Red Sox first 5 innings moneyline (-116)
- Paxton under 4.5 strikeouts (+115)
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.