Kyron Drones has been cut loose by Virginia Tech, and Douglas Farmer believes he’s the key to the Hokies’ handling Boston College on Thursday night.
The Boston College Eagles started the season in rather convincing fashion, upsetting Florida State and then giving Missouri all they could handle on the road. But things have shifted, and while the Eagles are still 4-2 outright, there are increasing signs to doubt them moving forward.
The Virginia Tech Hokies have had an opposite trend line, starting the season in frustrating fashion, losing at Vanderbilt and then relatively struggling with both Marshall and Old Dominion. But again, things have shifted, and while the Hokies may be just 3-3 outright, there are increasing signs to trust them tonight.
My Boston College vs. Virginia Tech predictions see growing value in the Hokies, though including recency bias in any free college football picks is always a worry. Find out more as kickoff comes at 7:30 ET on Thursday, October 17.
Boston College vs Virginia Tech prediction and best bet
My best bet
Virginia Tech -7 (-108 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
As Kyron Drones goes, so go the Virginia Tech Hokies. The Virginia Tech coaching staff seemed to forget that to start the season, hemming in their fulcrum of a quarterback in early September. Granting him only 21 pass attempts against Marshall was an egregious emphasis of that mistake.
The greater concern, of course, was not setting Drones loose on rushes. In his first two games, he rushed for 81 yards on 23 attempts, 3.5 yards per rush. Note: That is sacks adjusted.
In his last four games, Drones has rushed 33 times for 271 yards, an 8.2 yards per rush average. And, again, that is sacks adjusted. Some of that was better handling pressure, some of it was playcalls. All of it was more productive.
The Boston College Eagles may be particularly ripe for Drones to run wild. The Eagles force quarterbacks into scrambles at a rate better than two-thirds of the ACC, but they gain expected points value at a bottom-third rate. In other words, Boston College provides pressure but not containment.
That will propel the Hokies’ offense to a great degree. Drones dictates the entire offense. He is why Virginia Tech has covered three of its last four games and exceeded the team total in three of those four, the exception coming by just one point. Note: Both those exceptions came against Rutgers.
Since Drones was cut loose, the Hokies have exceeded their team totals by an average of 5.5 points per game. In the first two games, when he was still so hemmed in, they fell short by an average of 5.25 points per game.
Realizing Drones is the key to Virginia Tech’s success and Boston College is prone to letting him shine, backing the Hokies makes plenty of sense this week.
Boston College vs Virginia Tech same-game parlay (SGP)
Virginia Tech -7
Virginia Tech team total Over 27.5
Kyron Drones 2+ passing TDs
The inclination may be to assume Drones works most effectively with his legs when he is not hemmed in, but that is the surprise. Drones getting out of the pocket allows him to find a rhythm and comfort level. But he does not become dependent on the ground.
In each of his last two games, Drones has thrown two touchdowns, while rushing for just one.
Do not overlook Drones as a passer simply because his comfort level is so determined by his time mobile.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Boston College vs Virginia Tech odds
Boston College vs Virginia Tech live odds
Boston College vs Virginia Tech opening odds
- Boston College vs. Virginia Tech spread: Virginia Tech -7
- Boston College vs. Virginia Tech moneyline: Boston College +220 | Virginia Tech -275
- Boston College vs. Virginia Tech Over/Under: 49.5
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Boston College vs Virginia Tech spread and Over/Under analysis
- Virginia Tech opened as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. The line moved to -6.5 on Tuesday, but some books then quickly moved back to -7.
- The total opened at 51.5 on Sunday and immediately fell to 50.5 or 49.5, depending on your sportsbook. Some then cratered to 48.5 on Wednesday.
- Boston College’s last four games have all gone Under, in no small part because the Eagles have fallen short of their team total in three of those and by an average of 7.2 points in those three games.
Boston College vs Virginia Tech betting trend to know
Boston College is 0-3 against the spread in its last three games, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 5.3 points per game. Find more college football betting trends for Boston College vs. Virginia Tech.
Boston College vs Virginia Tech game info
| Location: | Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, VA |
| Date: | Thursday, 10-17-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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