Prop bet #1: Thomas Castellanos Over 56.5 rushing yards
The first of two bets that will target the Florida State Seminoles run defense. This number is far too low for a player with Thomas Castellanos’ running ability. Last week, Haynes King shredded the Noles on the ground as he rushed for 54 yards — a number that would’ve been higher if not for two bad snaps that led to 16 yards lost.
A season ago, Castellanos nearly led the Boston College Eagles to an upset win over Florida State at home. He threw for over 305 yards and ran for another 95 on 16 carries, and he did much of his damage after his team fell behind by 21 points.
This could be another game where he’s trying to bring his team back, but he’s also facing a defense that looked awful making tackles in the open field. While the Florida State coaching staff has indicated they’re emphasizing run defense this week, you have to wonder just how much they’ve managed to work on it given their long trip back from Ireland, and the rest required after such a journey.
Castellanos rushed for at least 67 yards in nine of his 13 games a season ago. I expect him to top that number again, which makes the Over here an easy play.
Prop bet #2: Kye Robichaux Over 43.5 rushing yards
Kye Robichaux had seven games last season for Boston College in which he carried the ball at least 10 times. In only one of those games did he fail to rush for at least 70 yards. That game…was against the Florida State Seminoles.
That said, Robichaux still gained 64 yards on 21 carries. His longest run of the day was only eight yards, but the Eagles continued to rely on him to grind out tough yardage as they lost by only two points.
Boston College was second in the ACC last season with nearly 200 rushing yards per game, and it was the key reason for a five-game winning streak. They return multiple starters and should open up some gaps for Robichaux to rumble through with his physical, downhill running style.
Jamal Haynes needed only 11 carries last week to gain 75 yards, scoring twice in the process. Given Florida State’s problems a week ago, I fully expect Robichaux to get 15+ carries tonight. Even if he only averages three yards per carry as he did last season, that’ll be enough to take his total over the number.
Prop bet #3: DJ Uiagalelei Under 220.5 passing yards
Last week was a game to forget for DJ Uiagalelei. The transfer quarterback threw for only 193 yards and while he didn’t have any interceptions, he also failed to throw a touchdown and routinely made questionable decisions.
And while he looked better on his final drive of the game, I’m not sure Mike Norvell is going to want him trying to sling the ball all over the field tonight. That’s one of the reasons I’m taking the Under on his passing yard total.
Boston College was abysmal against the run last season, and there’s not much reason to think that will change this year. As such, the Seminoles will rely on their rushing attack a fair amount. That also allows Uiagalelei to use play-action against a pass rush that ranked near the bottom nationally in sack rate, pressure rate, and havoc.
Furthermore, I expect the Seminoles to pull away early, which lessens the need for their quarterback to be put in situations where he’ll take unnecessary hits and take unneeded risks. I won’t be surprised if he throws for more than 200 yards, but I don’t see him reaching this total that has increased over the weekend.