Apr 27, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro (14) drives to the basket as Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) defends in the first half during game three of the first round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports
- The Boston Celtics can take a commanding 3-1 series lead on the Miami Heat on Monday night
- The Heat will be without Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier once again
- See the Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat odds, picks, player props, and injury reports for Game 4 on April 29
The #1 Boston Celtics (66-19, 28-14 away, 44-37-4 ATS) can take a 3-1 stranglehold on their best-of-seven first-round series with the Miami Heat (48-39, 23-20 home, 44-41-2 ATS) on Monday night when the teams meet in Game 4 at the Kaseya Center in Miami at 7:10 pm ET.
Boston throttled shorthanded Miami, 104-84, on Saturday and are double-digit favorites to pick up a second straight road win on Monday night.
Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Odds (Game 4)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | -10.5 (-108) | -520 | Over 203.5 (-108) |
| Miami Heat | +10.5 (-112) | +390 | Under 203.5 (-112) |
The Celtics vs Heat odds list Boston as 10.5-point chalk and -520 on the moneyline. The Heat are currently +390 home underdogs in Monday’s NBA odds, considerably longer than the +340 odds they carried into Game 3. The game total is sitting at 203.5, down half a point from last game. The first three games of the series have averaged 202.7 PPG, with Games 1 and 3 staying under and Game 2 hitting the over.
Odds as of April 29 2024, at DraftKings. See the full list of DraftKings payment methods to fund your account and bet on Celtics/Heat.
Boston is currently getting 71% of ATS handle in the NBA public betting splits for Monday night but only 50% of moneyline handle as a significant portion of the betting public looks for a big payday on the Heat.
The winner of the Celtics/Heat series will advance to face the winner of the #4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs #5 Orlando Magic series in the 2024 NBA playoff bracket. Cavs/Magic is currently tied at two games apiece as the series shifts back to Cleveland for Game 5 on Tuesday.
Heat Still Missing Butler, Rozier
Unfortunately for Miami, Jimmy Butler (20.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 5.0 APG) remains out with a sprained MCL and is unlikely to return at any point in the first round. Butler averaged a team-high 24.7 PPG when the Heat upset the Celtics in seven games in the Eastern Conference finals last season.
Joining Butler on the sideline is midseason acquisition Terry Rozier (19.8 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 5.6 APG), who hasn’t played since April 7 due to a neck injury.
The Celtics have no players listed on their injury report ahead of Game 4.
Tatum, Brown Propel Boston to Easy Game 3 Victory
After a stunning 111-101 upset by Miami in Game 2 on the road, the Celtics silenced critics with a decisive 104-84 victory on Saturday, a game they led by an absurd score of 63-39 at halftime. Jayson Tatum had 22 points and a game-high 11 rebounds along with six assists, while Jaylen Brown also had 22 points and eight rebounds in just 33 minutes of action. The big early lead allowed Joe Mazzulla to use his bench more than usual; three Boston reserves logged at least 20 minutes.
Boston’s defense limited Miami to just 41.6% from the field and the Celtics finished +7 on the glass while forcing 12 Miami turnovers (and committing just five of their own).
Bam Adebayo had a team-high 20 points and nine rebounds for the Heat on 8-of-18 from the field.
BOS vs MIA Player Props for Game 4
| Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Three-Pointers Made |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Horford (BOS) | 6.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108) | 6.5 (Ov +130 | Un -110) | OFF | 1.5 (Ov +145 | Un -175) |
| Bam Adebayo (MIA) | 19.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) | 9.5 (Ov -148 | Un -124) | 3.5 (Ov +120 | Un -142) | 0.5 (Ov +195 | Un -238) |
| Caleb Martin (MIA) | 9.5 (Ov -120 | Un -100) | 4.5 (Ov +110 | Un -130) | 2.5 (Ov +136 | Un -162) | 1.5 (Ov +124 | Un -148) |
| Derrick White (BOS) | 12.5 (Ov -120 | Un -100) | 4.5 (Ov +120 | Un -142) | 3.5 (Ov -162 | Un +136) | 2.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108) |
| Haywood Highsmith (MIA) | 6.5 (Ov -130 | Un +110) | 3.5 (Ov -118 | Un -102) | OFF | 1.5 (Ov +160 | Un -192) |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr (MIA) | 14.5 (Ov -102 | Un -118) | 4.5 (Ov -120 | Un -100) | 3.5 (Ov -118 | Un -102) | 0.5 (Ov -205 | Un +170) |
| Jaylen Brown (BOS) | 21.5 (Ov -108 | Un -112) | 6.5 (Ov -122 | Un +102) | 2.5 (Ov -135 | Un +114) | 1.5 (Ov -166 | Un +140) |
| Jayson Tatum (BOS) | 26.5 (Ov -108 | Un -112) | 9.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) | 5.5 (Ov -100 | Un -120) | 2.5 (Ov -142 | Un +120) |
| Jrue Holiday (BOS) | 9.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) | 4.5 (Ov -130 | Un +110) | 3.5 (Ov -155 | Un +130) | 1.5 (Ov -102 | Un -118) |
| Kristaps Porzingis (BOS) | 15.5 (Ov -142 | Un +120) | 7.5 (Ov +102 | Un -122) | OFF | 1.5 (Ov -135 | Un +114) |
| Nikola Jovic (MIA) | 8.5 (Ov -118 | Un -102) | 5.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) | OFF | 1.5 (Ov -122 | Un +102) |
| Payton Pritchard (BOS) | 6.5 (Ov +105 | Un -125) | 2.5 (Ov -148 | Un +124) | 2.5 (Ov -155 | Un +130) | 0.5 (Ov -225 | Un +185) |
| Tyler Herro (MIA) | 20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) | 4.5 (Ov -122 | Un +102) | 5.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) | 3.5 (Ov +124 | Un -148) |
Tatum has the highest point total on the board again in Game 4 at 26.5. He’s scored 23, 28, and 22 points in the first three games of the series, but averaged 26.9 PPG during the regular season. Herro has the highest point total for the Heat at 20.5 followed closely by Adebayo at 19.5. Adebayo and Tatum are also tied for the highest rebound total in Game 4 at 9.5.
Celtics vs Heat Game 4 Predictions
People have been ruling the Heat out at their peril since the 2023 postseason. While this is a very different team without Butler on the floor, Game 2 showed Miami still has the potential to beat any team on any given night. Saturday was a truly embarrassing performance from Erik Spoelstra’s group, and I expect a much better effort in the first half on Monday evening.
Miami is listed as a +170 underdog to win the first quarter, which amounts to just a 37% implied probability.
BOS vs MIA picks:
- Heat first quarter moneyline (+170)
- Adebayo over 19.5 points (-115)
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.