Bet the Celtics to cover on road vs Heat Monday in Game 4

Predicting the Celtics vs Heat series on a game-to-game basis has been difficult for me. Boston steamrolled the Heat in Game 1, but Miami played a perfect game in Game 2. In Game 3, the Celtics went back to their dominating ways.

The spread NBA betting sites have for Game 4 is 10.5 points in favor of the Celtics. I think Boston will cover because they should as the far superior roster. DraftKings has the best odds for this market at -108.

Celtics vs Heat odds

Celtics vs Heat analysis

This series had seven game potential if it weren’t for the injuries to Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier. But without their abilities to create scoring opportunities for themselves and others, the Heat have had to skyrocket their reliance on Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo offensively.

We saw in Game 2 that if they played a perfect game on both sides of the ball, the Heat could find a way to win. But a ghastly poor shooting performance in Game 3 where they lost the turnover and rebounding battle exposed the Heat for what they are currently.

Adebayo fits the Heat roster best as a second option, while Herro serves best as the third option. More so than how Adebayo plays, Miami’s hopes of winning rest on how well Herro shoots. He shot 31 percent from the field in Miami’s losses and 54 percent in their win.

On the flip side, makes the Celtics so impressive is how they can win by 20 points despite shooting 11/37 from distance. They scored 42 points in the paint in Game 3, which is an area they can exploit every game if they so choose with Miami’s size deficit.

Boston can feel good about being where they are despite Jayson Tatum not having a standout performance yet. His shooting has been subpar and he hasn’t had a 30 point game yet, but he’s contributing on the boards and with his passing ability.

Holding the Heat to 94 and 84 points in their two wins is an impressive statement being made by their defense. As elite as their offense is, defense is Boston’s strength that makes me most confident in them covering the 10.5 point spread.

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Celtics vs Heat predictions

Asking the Heat to have a replication of Game 2 is unrealistic. Even if Herro has a bounce back shooting game, the offensive talent isn’t there on the Heat. They need the Celtics to have a bad game, and I don’t see that happening again this series.

Tatum is due for a breakout performance, and the same can be said about Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. There’s many reasons the Celtics are the odds-on favorites to win the NBA Finals, and I expect to see them on display Monday.

Celtics vs Heat pick

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