At long last, the NBA Finals tip off Thursday night as the Dallas Mavericks hit the road to play the Boston Celtics in Game 1.
There is much to watch for, and I want to see how Boston’s Jrue Holiday and Derrick White measure up against Dallas’ dynamic duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
Here are five bets that immediately caught my attention.
Over 215.5.
Although the Mavericks and the Celtics both have reputations for stifling defenses, each team’s defense has been shaky over the past six games. The total has gone over in five of the Mavericks’ and Celtics’ past six games. I expect a lot of points to be scored in this series, especially in Game 1, as both teams get accustomed to one another. It’s also worth mentioning that the over hit in seven of the Mavericks’ past eight games against top-10 defenses.
Jaylen Brown over 25.5 points and assists.
Brown has been exceptional in the paint during the playoffs, making 65.1% of his field goal attempts. While the Mavericks have excelled at rim protection, holding opponents to just 51% in the paint, Brown should continue to be aggressive in the Finals. He cleared this line in every game of the Eastern Conference finals, nine of his past 14 playoff games and 10 of his past 20 games with Kristaps Porzingis in the lineup.
Luka Doncic over 31.5 points.
Teams have struggled to contain Doncic during the playoffs. He has averaged 29.0 PPG, and regardless of how teams defend Doncic, he has found a way to score. He has cleared 31.5 points in four of his past five games and should see a lot of one-on-one matchups against Boston in Game 1.
Jayson Tatum over 9.5 rebounds.
Tatum hasn’t shot the basketball well but has proven to be an excellent rebounder. He has cleared this line in 11 of 14 games and in his last regular-season game against the Mavericks.
Al Horford over 11.5 points and rebounds.
Horford has cleared this line in 18 of his past 20 games. He has thrived with Porzingis on the floor, surpassing 11.5 points and rebounds in 15 of their past 20 games together during the regular season, including his last game against the Mavericks on March 1.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics
8:30 p.m. ET, TD Garden, Boston
Records (Against the Spread)
Mavericks: 50-32 (49-33-0)
Celtics: 64-18 (43-35-4)
Line: Celtics (-6.5) Total: 215.5
Money Line: Mavericks (+205), Celtics (-250)
BPI Projection: Celtics by 5, straight up 66%, 220.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Mavericks: Luka Doncic, (GTD – Knee); Olivier-Maxence Prosper, (GTD – Ankle); Greg Brown III, (OUT – Personal)
Celtics: None reported