2025 Red Sox roster projection: Let the youth movement begin

The Boston Red Sox need a miracle to clinch a postseason berth. As of Monday, FanGraphs gives them a 0.3 percent chance of squeaking into the playoffs via the third American League Wild Card spot.

With their 2024 campaign all but over, it’s time to look ahead to next year.

The 2025 season is shaping up to be critical for the Red Sox. After missing the playoffs in five of the last six years, there will be pressure on chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and Co. to improve the underwhelming roster via free agency and trades. Of course, given how the organization has operated in recent offseasons, fans probably won’t have their hopes up for significant moves.

Boston will likely rely heavily on its influx of homegrown talent with top prospects Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Kyle Teel, and Marcelo Mayer on track to make their big-league debuts in 2025. It isn’t farfetched to say they have the organization’s fate in their hands. By refusing to include their top prospects in blockbuster deals, and by declining to spend big on free agents, the Red Sox front office is betting big that this youth movement is the key to contention for years to come.

So, what can we expect the Red Sox’ 2025 Opening Day roster to look like with the young guns in the mix? Below, we’ll go position by position with players under contract for next year, the prospects who should make the team out of spring training, and a list of free agents Boston should consider signing at positions of need.

Catcher (2)

1. Connor Wong
2. Kyle Teel

Teel, Boston’s No. 3 ranked prospect (MLB Pipeline), appears ready to join the MLB club after skyrocketing up the minor-league ranks. The 2023 first-round pick out of Virginia finished this season at Triple-A Worcester alongside fellow top Sox prospects Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell.

With Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire out of the picture, Teel has a clear path to an Opening Day roster spot behind fellow backstop Connor Wong. If Teel lives up to the hype, he and Wong will form a rock-solid catching tandem for the foreseeable future.

First base (1)

1. Triston Casas

Not long ago, Casas was Boston’s unquestionable first baseman of the future. A recent piece by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggests that may no longer be a sure thing.

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Rosenthal proposed the idea of signing impending free agent third baseman Alex Bregman, moving veteran slugger Rafael Devers from third base to first, and trading Casas for a front-end starting pitcher. If the Red Sox are serious about acquiring a top starting pitcher this offseason, moving Casas isn’t out of the realm of possibility. He and outfielder Jarren Duran are the two most valuable non-prospects the club has to offer in potential deals.

For now though, Casas is locked in as the starting first baseman in 2025.

Second base (2)

1. Vaughn Grissom
2. Kristian Campbell

The second base job is up for grabs heading into 2025. Vaughn Grissom, acquired from Atlanta in exchange for Chris Sale last offseason, should get another chance to earn the role. The 23-year-old has had a rough debut season with Boston, spending most of it in Triple-A Worcester after sustaining a hamstring injury. He’ll be out to prove that trading Sale, the 2024 National League Cy Young frontrunner, wasn’t the mistake it appears to be.

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If Grissom’s struggles continue, the Red Sox can take solace in breakout prospect Kristian Campbell – ranked No. 5 in the system – appearing ready for a call-up. Campbell, who also has experience at shortstop and center field, slashed .330/.439/.558 with 20 homers and 77 RBI across 115 games in High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A this year.

With a strong spring training, Campbell should have no problem finding a spot on the Opening Day roster.

Shortstop (2)

1. Trevor Story
2. David Hamilton

Injuries have plagued Story in each of his three seasons with Boston. He missed almost all of the 2024 campaign due to a separated shoulder. Nevertheless, the two-time All-Star is under contract through 2027 and will presumably be the Opening Day shortstop again next year.

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Since Story can’t be counted on to stay in the lineup, the Red Sox must be prepared with reinforcements. David Hamilton proved to be a viable option this season and should return in 2025.

The shortstop situation will get even more interesting when top prospect Marcelo Mayer is ready for The Show. Mayer will almost certainly begin 2025 in Triple-A after suffering a season-ending injury, but the majors aren’t far off if he starts the year red-hot in Worcester.

Third base (1)

1. Rafael Devers

Devers is the Red Sox’ everyday third baseman until the team decides to move him to first base or DH.

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Outfield (4)

1. Jarren Duran
2. Ceddanne Rafaela
3. Wilyer Abreu
4. Roman Anthony

Tyler O’Neill is set to hit free agency and the Red Sox should consider re-signing him given their need for right-handed power. That said, there’s a logjam in the outfield that needs to be cleared so the Roman Anthony era can begin. Anthony is the No. 1 prospect in the league, according to Baseball America.

Duran’s stock is sky-high after his stellar season, making him a prime candidate to be moved in a deal for starting pitching. Abreu is also a potential trade chip coming off a strong rookie campaign. Rafaela is less likely to be dealt after signing his eight-year contract extension.

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Rob Refsnyder could return for another season, but the veteran is pondering retirement and will therefore be left off the projected roster until further notice.

Designated hitter (1)

1. Masataka Yoshida

Yoshida got off to a horrific start in 2024 but found his groove over the second half of the season. The 31-year-old has a respectable .777 OPS through 105 games played. That’s a positive development for the Red Sox, but they’ll likely still explore potential trades involving Yoshida this offseason. He’s an imperfect fit for the lineup as a left-handed-hitting DH without much pop.

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Devers could take over Yoshida’s DH role but if not, here are the top sluggers set to hit the free-agent market:

• Juan Soto, OF
• Teoscar Hernandez, OF
• Pete Alonso, 1B
• Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
• Christian Walker, 1B
• Willy Adames, SS
• Alex Bregman, 3B
• Anthony Santander, OF
• Michael Conforto, OF
• Justin Turner, DH/1B
• Jurickson Profar, OF
• Gleyber Torres, 2B
• J.D. Martinez, DH

Starting pitchers (5)

1. Brayan Bello, RHP
2. Tanner Houck, RHP
3. Lucas Giolito, RHP
4. Kutter Crawford, RHP
5. ???

Nick Pivetta will hit free agency and James Paxton plans to retire. Bello and Houck are virtual locks for the 2025 rotation and Giolito will likely fill a spot when he returns from his elbow injury. Crawford is on the bubble and will probably move to the bullpen if the Red Sox do what they should do and bring in multiple quality starters, though that’s far from a guarantee given their tepid approach in recent offseasons.

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Nonetheless, here are some of the top starting pitchers scheduled to hit free agency:

• Corbin Burnes, RHP
• Max Scherzer, RHP
• Walker Buehler, RHP
• Max Fried, LHP
• Jack Flaherty, RHP
• Luis Severino, RHP
• Shane Bieber, RHP
• Yusei Kikuchi, LHP
• Andrew Heaney, LHP
• Jose Quintana, RHP
• Charlie Morton, RHP

Relief pitchers (8)

1. Liam Hendriks
2. Brennan Bernardino
3. Justin Slaten
4. Josh Winckowski
5. Zack Kelly
6. Greg Weissert
7. Richard Fitts
8. Zach Penrod

Veteran relievers Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin will become free agents, putting the Red Sox bullpen in need of a significant overhaul. Three-time All-Star closer Liam Hendriks should return from Tommy John rehab but it remains to be seen just how effective he’ll be. The list of relief pitchers above should look different a few months from now.

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Here are some of the top relievers that will be available in free agency.

• Aroldis Chapman, LHP
• Joe Kelly, RHP
• Blake Treinen, RHP
• Kirby Yates, RHP
• Paul Sewald, RHP
• Carlos Estevez, RHP
• Scott Barlow, RHP
• Tanner Scott, LHP
• Clay Holmes, RHP
• Jose Leclerc, RHP
• A.J. Minter, LHP

Injured list

1. Garrett Whitlock, SP (Tommy John rehab)
2. Chris Murphy, RP (Tommy John rehab)

Whitlock will likely pitch out of the bullpen when he returns. The same goes for Murphy, who showed flashes of potential as a rookie reliever in 2023.